The new normal in our supermarkets, is change. With proliferating competition, high benchmarks to stay listed in supermarkets and ever-shifting consumer trends that can sweep through with the click of an Instagram like, brands are no longer operating in predictable cycles. They face a VUCA environment — Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity. Far from being a negative landscape, VUCA represents an opportunity. It’s a call for brands to invest in their most visible, powerful tools: brand identity expressed through packaging design. Done right, these hard-working assets help businesses stand out on crowded store shelves, build lasting impressions online and stay relevant with the next generation of shoppers.
Understanding VUCA in Consumer Goods
VUCA is not just a theory — it describes the reality of retail today. Volatility is seen in sudden shifts in consumer preferences, such as the rapid move toward sustainable packaging and low-impact materials. Uncertainty is reflected in economic cycles, where household budgets tighten but consumers still expect the same, or more, in an increasingly connected and fast paced society where innovative packaging signals value and care. Complexity arises from the growing range of products available and retail channels, from grocery stores to e-commerce platforms, where the product’s packaging must deliver consistency across both physical and digital touchpoints. Finally, ambiguity surrounds category definitions themselves: oat milk challenges dairy, detergent pods replace powder, and niche DTC players force household giants to rethink their packaging style and messaging.
As The Grocer recently highlighted in its coverage of UK shopping habits, categories once considered stable — like frozen meals — are being redefined by consumer interest in health, convenience, and sustainability. Similarly, Retail World in Australia has pointed to how private label growth has blurred the line between premium and budget. Both publications reinforce the VUCA reality: no category, however established, is safe from rapid transformation.
Why Packaging Design Matters for FMCG Brands
When faced with volatility and recession, brands need to investigate a different way to connect with consumers, which is why Cowan has a proprietary approach to developing hard-working assets (HWAs™). We find that, more than ever, manufacturing consumer goods companies need to deliver clarity, continuity, and creativity through their communication. Packaging is one of the cornerstones of these assets because it:
- Lives at the point of decision, both on store shelves and in online product listings.
- Creates brand recognition by uniting visual elements like colour palettes, typography, and logo design.
- Provides necessary information that reassures consumers on ingredients, sustainability, and usage.
- Delivers a mini unboxing experience that transforms a transaction into a memorable moment.
In short, effective packaging design is more than decoration — it is a powerful tool in driving consumer preference. It can make or break whether a consumer sees value, relevance, and trust in your brand.
Building Brand Identity Through Packaging
At Cowan, we believe that packaging is not separate from brand identity; it is the connection of form, function, and emotion that translates strategy into something consumers can touch. Our design philosophy values:
- Clarity: packaging should simplify the message, cutting through clutter.
- Consistency: across a product line, packaging must work as a system — supported by brand guidelines, style guides, and ancillary design elements.
- Creativity: seasoned designers and creative agencies must find different ways to refresh heritage assets while staying true to the brand’s identity.
- Relevance: designs must tap into latest trends — from innovative materials to sustainable packaging, and contemporary communication devices whilst enabling brands to operate in multiple markets.
This holistic approach ensures that packaging becomes an essential tool for storytelling, bridging tradition and innovation.
Lessons from Recessionary Market Shifts
During past crises, marketers often spoke of the “lipstick effect” — small luxuries consumers turned to in recessions. But as The Grocer observed during the pandemic and beyond, those patterns have shifted. Face masks reduced lipstick sales, while detergent pods, hygiene products, and household items surged as new staples.
Similarly, grocery store data in Retail World showed soaring demand for comfort foods and pantry basics, reminding us that categories once in decline — like canned soup — can rebound overnight. Challenging economic environments teach brands to expect the unexpected. The lesson is not to guess the next surge, but to build brand packaging that flexes with shifting consumer laundry preferences, dietary trends, or wellness fads.
The Rise of the Homebody Economy
One of the clearest demonstrations of how disruption reshapes consumer priorities was the Homebody Economy, which emerged during the pandemic. While born in an extraordinary context, it still provides a valuable example of how shopping behaviours can shift rapidly and accelerate emerging trends such as sustainability, wellness, and convenience.
COVID-19 redefined what counted as essential. Sweatpants, streaming subscriptions, bicycles, and big-screen TVs soared in sales, while deodorant sales dipped and comfort categories like ice cream found fresh relevance.
- Unilever, P&G, and Reckitt Benckiser “cleaned up” with hygiene brands such as Lifebuoy, Dettol, Ariel, and Omo.
- Heinz, Campbell’s Soup, and Nescafe rediscovered growth as consumers reached for comfort and convenience.
- Categories dependent on out-of-home consumption struggled, but Ocean Spray pivoted successfully into wellness with Atoka Herbal Tonics.
The lesson was clear: consumer priorities can change almost overnight. For packaging and brand identity, this meant emphasising trust, reassurance, and consistency.
From Complexity to Clarity: Packaging as a Consumer Compass
In an age where consumers are bombarded by options — from commercial projects of global giants to small businesses offering artisanal alternatives — clarity wins. Packaging becomes the key brand expression to drive trust. Whether through bold colours, innovative shapes, or intricate designs, the goal is to reduce cognitive load and make choice easy.
Innovation Case Studies: Ocean Spray, Oatly & Oreo
- Ocean Spray Atoka Herbal Tonics: pivoted into functional wellness drinks with herbal botanicals and modern wellness packaging.
- Oatly: leaned into playful distraction and quirky digital activations instead of product claims.
- Oreo: reinforced its playful DNA with interactive, culture-driven campaigns.
Each case shows how packaging and brand identity, when treated as strategic assets, can connect with consumers beyond functional benefits.
Packaging Design as a Strategic Asset
Too often, packaging is seen as a cost rather than an investment. But volatility demonstrates that packaging design is an effective tool for survival and growth. Investing in packaging enhances:
- Omnichannel consistency — packaging must look strong on-shelf and in thumbnails online.
- Consumer trust — clear, high-impact design reinforces brand promise.
- Preference — design helps retain relevance as consumer needs evolve.
Turning VUCA into Advantage
The world of packaging design has always been about balancing familiarity with innovation, aesthetics with regulation, and storytelling with utility. In a VUCA world, these tensions are magnified. But the opportunity is clear: brands that invest in effective packaging design and strong brand identity can not only weather the storm but thrive.
At Cowan, we believe packaging is not the end of the process — it is the beginning of consumer connection. By treating packaging as a hard-working asset, brands can create lasting impressions, build brand recognition, and secure relevance in even the most turbulent times.
The new normal is change. The winners in volatility will be those who embrace packaging as their most agile, resilient, and creative ally.
